BOOS/HIROMB-based marine forecasts in Estonia: Problems, experiences and challenges

摘要

In January 2005, a severe storm hit the Baltic Sea region. Estonian towns Pärnu and Haapsalu were flooded with the storm surge waters. Considerable damages and economic loss occurred. Due to the BOOS cooperation, numerical forecasts became available and they were convincingly much more accurate than the forecasts made by the traditional methods. Advantages of modern operational oceanography were clearly demonstrated and Estonian Center of Environmental Investments launched a project to establish HIROMB-based marine forecasts in Estonia. In winter 2006, two severe oil pollution events occurred in the Gulf of Finland. Hind- and forecasts of oil drift, done with the HIROMB/SeaTrackWeb were of great importance in the practical management of those critical situations. The presentation gives an overview of problems, experiences and challenges on the implementation of BOOS/HIROMB-based marine forecasts in Estonia. We consider also validation of forecasts and the need to apply local VHR forecast models that are linked to the Baltic-wide operational system.