Diffusion and Substitution Mechanism in Japan's Telephony Market

摘要

In just two decades, information and communication technology (ICT) products and services have become ubiquitous in the world, especially in middle and high income countries. Among all aspects of ICT revolution, the telecommunications sector can be considered as a rapidly growing market with the telephony service as a major index. In this research, an empirical analysis focusing on Japan's telephony market is conducted to construct a model for the future market prediction and characterization of the role of substitution and competition in the process of diffusion of the mechanism of ICT markets. The trajectory of different generations of mobile phone is decomposed with different models. The correlation between different factors, such as price and time, and consumers' intention to adopt new technological products is also signified. In section 1, we give a brief introduction of this research. Section 2 and Section 3 state the model construction and the result of empirical analysis. Chapter 4 discusses the policy implication and remaining future work.