中国总量生产函数模型选择——基于要素替代弹性与产出弹性视角的研究

摘要

The aggregate production function is the basis of economic growth and macro policy, and different production function model assumption may lead to different conclusions.This paper systematically studies the choice of the China`s aggregate production function model, from the aspect of the implicit hypothesis of the elasticity of substitution and the elasticity of output.The results find as follows.Firstly, the bounds of the China`s elasticity of substitution is [0.8, 1.5], and converge to 1.Secondly, the time-varying elasticity production function can describe the change of the China`s labor share appropriately.Thirdly, the accounts results of total factor productivity for the Cobb-Douglas production function, the standardized CES production function and the time-varying elasticity production function tend to be consistent.This paper provides the theoretic and empirical support for the choice of the China`s aggregate production function model.%总量生产函数是经济增长和宏观政策的研究基础,不同生产函数模型设定可能导致不同的研究结论.本文从生产函数模型中要素替代弹性和产出弹性的隐含假设出发,系统研究了中国总量生产函数模型选择.本文研究发现:中国要素替代弹性的上下限为[0.8,1.5],且呈现向1收敛的趋势;时变弹性生产函数模型拓展Cobb-Douglas生产函数为变参数形式,可以较好地刻画中国劳动收入份额变化;Cobb-Douglas生产函数、标准化CES生产函数和时变弹性生产函数模型的生产率核算结果趋于一致.本文研究为中国总量生产函数模型选择提供了理论参考和实证支持.