中国碳排放强度影响因素相关性研究——基于VAR与SVAR模型分析

摘要

本文列举出近年来研究碳排放强度的代表性文献,从中选取经济增长规模,能源强度,能源结构,产业结构四种出现频率最高的影响因素,进行四种因素对碳排放强度影响的平稳性检验,结果表明经济增长规模对碳排放强度的影响平稳性不足；对碳排放强度与能源强度、能源结构、产业结构构建结构向量自回归模型,运用脉冲响应函数分析三种因素的变化对碳排放强度的冲击效应,并用方差分解分析三种影响因素的贡献度,结果显示第三产业对碳排放强度的冲击效应最为显著,能源强度次之,能源结构最弱.%The paper enumerates the recent carbon emission intensity paper to select the key factors of carbon emission intensity. According to the paper, economic scale, energy intensity, energy structure, industry structure selected to be the key factors because of the high frequency in recent research. The results show: that the time series of the per capita GDP lack of stationarity as the influence factor to carbon emission intensity, so the economic scale should be excluded; The industry structure has the most significant shock effect on the carbon emission intensity in the three influence factors.