经过十年的"黄金"发展期,中国已成为农机生产和消费大国,但农机内部的问题却日渐突出,产能过剩成为主要矛盾.基于中国工业企业数据库1998-2013年的数据,利用"边界法"测算出中国农机产业细分行业生产端的产能利用率,同时结合销售端工业产值与销售产值之比加以修正,分析农机产能过剩指数,探讨农机产业产能过剩的主要影响因素.结果表明,我国农机各细分产业的平均产能利用率均低于美联储标准79％,平均产能过剩指数在0.3-0.9之间,农机产业产能过剩形势严峻,且产能过剩程度表现出与经济周期波动的同步性.影响农机产业产能过剩的主要因素为农机产业投资、工业劳动生产率、行业竞争程度和出口,且前三者的提高均会加剧产能过剩,而出口比重的上升则会缓解产能过剩.因此,提出完善和优化企业的市场进入和退出机制,推动行业兼并重组;开拓海外市场,转移部分过剩产能;加强宏观政策引导,提升农机产业技术水平的政策建议.%After a decade of fast growth in China, the problems inside of the agricultural machinery industry have turned out to be obvious though China has become the largest country of production and consumption of agricultural machinery products. Excess capacity becomes a main concern of the industry. Based on the panel data of China Industry Business Performance from 1998 to 2013, and applying the "frontier method", this paper estimates and analyzes the excess capacity index of agricultural machinery industry and explores the key influencing factors of the overcapacity problem. Results show that the average capacity utilization rates are below the US Federal Reserve standard by 79％ and the average index ranges from 0.3 to 0.9. Overcapacity is severe now and the fluctuation of its extent is synchronous with economic cycle. In addition, business investment, industry competition, and labor productivity are the main factors causing the excess capacity of the agricultural machinery industry in China. In contrast, export can reduce the excess capacity of the agricultural machinery industry in China. Therefore, to well control the overcapacity problem of China's agricultural machinery industry, this paper suggests: to improve the entry and exit mechanism of enterprises, to promote the annexation and reorganization of those agricultural machinery companies, to explore overseas markets to absorb some excess capacity, and to enhance macro policy guidance for the industry.
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