我国肉类消费总量快速增长和结构调整加剧了饲料粮供求矛盾,准确测算和预测饲料粮需求将是在农业"供给侧改革"的背景下,长期内满足粮食安全的政策基础.本文通过对居民肉类消费总量和消费结构的研究与调整,结合饲料转化率估计肉类消费对粮食的需求;并在此基础上,综合考虑收入弹性、经济增长、人口变动、城镇化与老龄化的影响,预测未来肉类生产耗粮规模的变化以及对我国粮食供求造成的冲击.结果显示,肉类生产耗粮量将由2014年的近2亿t增长至2050年的3.95亿t;而肉类生产耗粮率则会由2014年的32.52％上升至2050年的58.79％;肉类生产耗粮率的上升会进一步导致粮食自给率的下滑和粮食贸易依存度的上升,未来我国的"粮食安全"主要表现为"饲料安全".这样的分析结果为我国农业长期内的"供给侧改革"提供了一个参照系.%Soaring demand and changing structure of meat consumption challenged China's grain market. Predicting feed grain demand has strong policy implications for grain security in the context of agricultural "supply-side reform". This study estimates the feed grain demand using the meat consumption data and the feed-meat conversion ratio. In addition, this paper also presents a projection on feed grain demand from the perspective of changing income elasticity, economic growth, demographic change and urbanization. Results show that the total feed grain demand will increase from almost 200 million tons in 2014 to 395 million tons in 2050; and the share of feed grain in total grain will rise from 32.52％ to 58.79％ during the same period. Soaring feed grain demand threats the self-sufficient rate and increases trade dependence, implying that feed security will dominate grain security in China in the near future. Our study provides valuable implications for the agricultural supply-side reform.
展开▼
