中原经济区农业现代化的状态评价与定位推进

摘要

在梳理农业现代化相关研究的基础上，构建农业现代化综合评价体系，基于熵权灰色关联模型与空间分析方法对中原经济区农业现代化水平的时空变化规律进行分析。结果表明，时序特征方面，农业现代化综合水平除1997年出现小幅下降外不断提高，并且2002年之后增长幅度较大。其中农业经济发展水平、农业生产条件与生产效率水平呈现较稳定的增长；农村社会发展水平与整体变化类似，但2008年出现下降，且2009之后增长幅度有所下降；农业生态环境水平波动变化较大，呈现不稳定状态。从空间分异情况看，郑州、焦作、襄阳三市的农业现代化水平与其他地区差别较大，其余地区相邻之间的差距较小，农业现代化水平的等级层次相对不明显。从整个分布格局看，第三、第四、第五级别区组成的区域占据了绝对主导并形成大范围连绵分布区，第一、第二级别区分布范围小且在郑州及其北侧小范围集中，整个区域的分布格局极其不平衡且局部差异大。基于评价结果进行了原因解读，并从时空两个维度提出了定位推进建议。%O n the basis of review ing literature on agricultural m odernization, a com prehensive index evaluation system for agricultural m odernization w as established. B y using such a system , the spatial-tem poral dynam ics and features of agricultural m odernization in the C entral Plains E conom ic R egion (C PE R ) w ere analyzed based on the entropy-based grey relational m odel and the spatial analysis. From the tem poral perspective, the com prehensive level of agricultural m odernization increased gradually from 1995 to 2011, w ith a rapid grow th since 2002, except for a slight decline in 1997. T he agricultural econom ic developm ent level and the agricultural production infrastructure m odernization level grew stably. T he rural social developm ent level and the overall level changed sim ilarly, w ith a decreasing trend since 2008. T he agricultural ecological environm ent level fluctuated largely and show ed an unstable state. From the spatial perspective,the difference ofagriculturalm odernization levelbetw een Zhengzhou-Jiaozuo-X iangyang and otherregions waslarge.A smalldifferencewasobservedforotherregions.Thehierarchylevelofagriculturalmodernizationwasnot obvious.From the entire distribution pattern perspective,the regions ofthe lastthree types w ere highly dom inated and coveredawiderangeofareas.Theregionsofthefirstandsecondlevelshadasmallnumberandmostlyconcentratedin the north of Z hengzhou. T he distribution pattern of the w hole region is extrem ely unbalanced, and the local variability wasverylarge.Basedontheresultsofthedataanalysiscarriedoutinthisstudy,thesuggestionfortheCPER positioning and propulsion w as m ade from the spatial-tem poralperspective.