农民工的就业稳定性及其影响因素研究--基于南京市的调查

摘要

2亿多名农民工的稳定就业是我国城镇化持续稳定发展的基础。基于南京市的调查数据，运用多元线性回归模型和多项有序Logistic模型，对农民工的就业稳定性进行实证分析，探讨农民工的就业稳定性的影响因素。结果表明，男性、20-40岁、初中以上文化程度农民工的就业稳定性较低，建筑装潢业、批发贸易零售业和制造业农民工的就业稳定性高于其他行业，私营和个体性质单位就业的农民工就业稳定性则显著低于其他所有制单位，参加单位社会保险的农民工就业稳定性较高。就业稳定性在年龄、受教育程度、职业技能水平三个方面存在着显著性的类别差异，并且年龄、受教育程度两个因素对就业稳定性类别差异的影响较强，而职业技能水平因素仅产生较弱的影响。因此，建议从改善人力资本特征和就业特征着手适当提高农民工的就业稳定性。%T he stable em ploym ent of m ore than 200 m illion m igrant w orkers is the basis for sustainable and stable developm ent of C hina's urbanization. B ased on the survey data collected from N anjing city, this paper conducts an empiricalanalysisontheemploymentstabilityofmigrantworkersandexploresitsinfluencingfactorsoftheemployment stability by using the m ultivariate linear regression m odel and ordinal L ogistic m odel. R esults show that for m ale m igrants, aged from 20 to 40 years old, w ith junior high school education or above, have low em ploym ent stability. M igrant w orkers in building decoration industry, w holesale trade, retail and m anufacturing industries have higher em ploym ent stability than other ow nership units. For those w ho are in private enterprises have significantly low er em ploym ent stability. W hile m igrant w orkers w ho have participated in social insurance offered by em ployers possess higher em ploym ent stability. In addition, the em ploym ent stability of category differences of m igrant w orkers is influenced by three factors:age,education and occupationalskilllevel.Specifically,age and education have a stronger im pact than occupational skill level on em ploym ent stability. T herefore it’s suggested to raise em ploym ent stability of m igrantw orkers by im proving hum an capitalquality and job selecting skills.