农民收入增长的贡献与波动--基于面板Granger因果与谱分析的实证

摘要

农民收入增长是实现全面小康社会的重要基础，对扩大内需和推动经济持续增长也具有重要意义。以科布—道格拉斯分配函数为基础导出了农民收入增长的决定关系，采用面板数据对模型进行了检验，利用面板Granger因果检验法检验了GDP及三次产业增长对农民收入增长的贡献作用，并用谱分析方法对改革开放以来经济增长与农民收入增长的波动周期进行实证比较。结果表明，在静态面板数据模型中，GDP、第一产业及第二产业增长均对农民收入增长有显著贡献，但第三产业增长对农民收入增长影响不显著。在动态面板模型中，GDP及三次产业的增长均是农民收入增长的Granger原因；农民收入的波动同时受到农业及非农产业波动的影响，GDP、第二、三产业波动的主周期为7-12年，但第一产业波动的主周期只有2.8年，农业产业的频繁波动增加了农民收入的波动程度。未来提高农民收入，需要进一步推进改革和开放的深度和广度，稳定经济增长和农业生产，强化对农业风险的控制，同时推进城镇化和农民工市民化的进程。%Farmers'incomegrowthisanimportantfoundationtoachieveacomprehensivewell-offsocietyanditisalso critical for increasing dom estic dem and and prom oting sustainable econom ic grow th. B ased on C obb-D ouglas distribution function, using panel data G ranger causality test and spectral analysis, this paper analyzed G D P and industries’contributions to farm ers’incom e grow th. E m pirical analysis results show that 1) in the static panel data m odel, G D P, prim ary industry, and secondary industry significantly contributed to farm ers' incom e grow th, but the contribution of the tertiary industry grow th is not significant;2) in the dynam ic panel data m odel, G D P and all the industries’grow th are the G ranger causes of the farm ers’incom e grow th;3) farm ers'incom e grow th is affected by the fluctuationsofagriculturalandnon-agriculturalindustries;4)themainfluctuationcycleforGDP,secondaryandtertiary industriesis7-12 years,butthe fluctuation cycle ofthe firstindustry isonly 2.8 years;and 5)the frequentfluctuationsin agricultural industry increase the volatility of farm ers’incom e. T o m aintain the stable grow th of farm ers’incom e, it is suggested that in-depth econom ic reform , opening up, steady econom ic grow th, stable agricultural production, strengthening agriculturalrisk control,and prom oting urbanization process are necessary.