Price form ation and fluctuation of agricultural products w ith different attributes are different. B ased on 1965-2013annualdataofbanana,orange,rice,wheat,palm oilandsoybeanoil,thispaperanalyzedthefactorsaffecting the long-term price form ation and fluctuation of agricultural products on the international m arket by estim ating the long-term elasticities and the contributions of these factors to each agricultural product price from 1997-2004 to 2005-2013.Resultsshow that1)pricesofagriculturalproductsontheinternationalmarketincreasewithfluctuations;2) T he price of previous period is the m ain factor affecting current price, each agricultural product’s previous price significantlyaffectitscurrentpriceandtheimpactonfruitsismoresignificantthanongrainsandvegetableoils;3)Due totheexpansionofdemandforgrainsandvegetableoilcausedbyincreasingoilprice,oilpricesignificantlyaffectsthe vegetable oil and w heat prices, but not fruit prices;4) Stock-to-use ratios significantly affect all agricultural products except banana and the im pact on grains is m ore significant than on others;A nd 5) incom e and inflation have significant im pacts on fruit and grain prices. Facing the increasing prices of agricultural products on the international m arket, to m aintain the dom estic prices stable, this paper provides the follow ing suggestions:increasing price increase tolerance appropriately, strengthening the transparency of supply and dem and inform ation on dom estic agricultural products and enhancing the dom estic agriculturalproductreserves.%不同属性农产品的价格形成和波动成因存在差异。本研究采用1965-2013年香蕉、橙子、大米、小麦、棕榈油和大豆油的国际市场年度价格数据，考察了国际农产品长期价格形成与波动的影响因素，并在此基础上分析了各因素对2004年后农产品价格上涨的贡献度。研究结果表明：国际农产品价格在波动中上升，长期上升趋势明显，短期波动剧烈；上期价格是影响农产品当期价格的主要因素，六种农产品上期价格对当期价格均有显著影响，平均影响水平0.5，且对水果的影响最显著；石油价格显著影响植物油和小麦价格，不影响水果价格，原因是油价上升引致谷物、植物油等生物燃料替代能源需求扩张；上期库存对除香蕉外的其他五种农产品价格均有显著影响，对谷物影响最显著，对水果影响最弱；收入、通货膨胀仅分别对水果、谷物价格有影响。在国际农产品价格不断上涨的形势下，为保持国内农产品价格稳定，建议适当提高农产品价格上涨容忍度、增强国内农产品供求信息透明度和加强国内农产品储备。
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