基于不同调查时点数据的黑龙江省土地利用变化及政策驱动分析

摘要

G IS spatial overlay and bilateral dynam ic degree m odel w ere em ployed to analyze the characteristics and trajectoriesofland-usechangeinHeilongjiangProvincebasedonthedataofnationallandsurvey.Theresultsshow that overthe past28 years,a significantchange ofland-use has taken place in H eilongjiang.A rea offarm land increased after an initialdecrease w ith the increase m ostly contributed by conversion from forest,unutilized land and grassland.A rea of forest fluctuated over the period, w ith no clear trend. G rassland area w as decreased dram atically largely due to conversion into farm land.T he area used for construction increased m uch faster than other land use types w ith an average annual grow th rate of 5.13% . Farm land protection w as the key factor of land use change by directly influencing the change of other land types. Polices w ere found to have a significant effect on land-use change and thus m ore polices should been im plem ented to protectgrassland and forestunderthe prem ise offood security.%以土地调查数据为支撑，综合运用GIS空间叠加分析及土地利用双向动态度模型，分析黑龙江省土地利用变化特征与变化轨迹，探索土地政策对黑龙江省土地利用变化的驱动效应。结果显示，28 a来，黑龙江省土地利用发生了显著变化：耕地先减后增，其中林地、未利用地与草地对耕地增加贡献最大；林地呈现一定波动趋势，但总体面积基本持平；草地持续减少，主要转向耕地；建设用地快速增长，年均增长率为5.13%，远大于其他地类。耕地保护是土地利用变化的核心因素，直接推动其他各类用地变化；政策对土地利用变化的影响显著，建议在保障粮食安全的前提下，加大对草地与林地保护的政策支持。