The reliability, efficiency, and economy of a power delivery system depend mainly on how well its substations, transmission lines, and distribution feeders are located within the utility service area, and how well their capacities match power needs in their respective localities. Often, utility planners are forced to commit to sites, rights of way, and equipment capacities years in advance. A necessary element of effective expansion planning is a forecast of where and how much demand must be served by the future T&D system, a forecast with sufficient accuracy and detail to allow meaningful determination of sites and sizes for future substation, transmission, and distribution facilities. The authors give a brief history of small area load forecasting and then describe spatial load forecasting techniques. The three-stage method forecasts with accuracy and detail, allowing meaningful determination of sites and sizes for future substation, transmission, and distribution facilities.
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