Political/commercial background

摘要

The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party's third government, elected in October 2019, to serve a full four-year term to 2023. Nevertheless, the government will be less effective than in PiS's previous term (2015-19). PiS lost its majority in the Senat (the upper house of parliament), meaning that it will no longer be able to pass legislation swiftly through the two houses without opposition as it did in 2015-19. The political situation is broadly stable, despite the polarisation that has ensued since PiS's return to power in 2015. In the past four years the government has instigated a series of contentious reforms that have weakened democratic institutions, polarised public opinion and recast Poland's relationship with the EU. We expect these trends to continue over the next four years, albeit checked by the Senat.