舰船机电系统非完备使用故障数据分析

摘要

舰船机电系统在使用维修过程中所记录的故障数据通常质量不高，信息记录不完整、不准确。针对这类不完备数据，利用图示法给出故障趋势的判定。在此基础上，分别利用齐次泊松过程、非齐次泊松过程和几何过程，对装备的历史故障数据进行分析。结果表明，几何过程产生的拟合误差最小，可预测装备的未来故障强度。%The fault data of ships′mechanical system are usually not well recorded during operation and maintenance activities,and are typically incomplete and inaccurate.For such incomplete data,fault trend was justified by graphical representation.On this basis,historical fault data was analyzed using homogeneous Poisson process,non-homogeneous Poisson process and geometric process respectively.Numerical results show that the fault of geometric process is minimized,and the future fault intensity can be predicted.